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Procter & Gamble Health Ltd>
  • CMP : 4,726.4 Chg : 25.30 (0.54%)
  • Target : 4,955.0 (14.43%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

06 May 2022

Ex-VMS portfolio propels growth; consistency to be seen

About the stock

Procter & Gamble Health is a leading pharma cum OTC company with key focus on vitamins, minerals, supplement (VMS) category.

  • It has legacy brands in the VMS category like Neurobion, Polybion, Evion (all vitamins), Livogen (iron supplement), Nasivion (nasal decongestant), Seven Seas (vitamin- substitute for malt based health drinks)
  • The company was earlier known as Merck Ltd and was part of Merck KGaA, Germany. In 2018 it (as a consumer health business) was acquired by P&G
Q4FY22

P&G Health's revenues grew on the back of 48%, 20% and 13% YoY growth in respiratory, gastro-intestinal and derma therapies, respectively, according to MAT March 2022, IQVIA. [note: It follows July-June fiscal year].

  • Sales were up 22% YoY to ₹ 267.8 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 68.8 crore, up 123.8% YoY with margins at 25.7%

Consequent PAT was at ₹ 51.2 crore (down 224.4% YoY)

What should Investors do?

P&G Health share price has grown by ~4x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1085 in May 2017 to ~₹ 4330 levels in May 2022)

  • We maintain HOLD on the stock as we look for the company to sustain the recent ex-VMS growth and improved margin performance
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 4955 i.e. 35x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 141.6

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • P&G’s strong distribution channel and strong brand recall are likely catalysts for future growth besides performance of ex-VMS portfolio
  • MNC pharma traits like strong brand stickiness, growth, earnings visibility, consistency (despite quarterly fluctuations) in performances, strong b/s
  • Key differentiator for PGHL is that its core category is VMS. As a therapeutic category, this is likely to be rediscovered as daily supplements due to increased awareness in a post-Covid world
New Stock Ideas

Apart from PGHL, in our healthcare coverage we like Abbott.

  • Abbott India is one of the fastest growing listed MNC pharma companies. It has outperformed the industry on a consistent basis in women’s health, GI, metabolic, pain, CNS among others

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 19840

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 CAGR(FY20-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Revenues - 891.2 1,008.7 9.1 1,100.5 1,190.4 1,288.9 8.5
EBITDA - 210.8 246.0 13.3 278.8 297.6 322.2 9.4
EBITDA Margins (%) - 23.6 24.4 - 25.3 25.0 25.0 -
Net Profit - 169.3 176.8 14.1 201.8 216.6 235.0 9.9
EPS (Adjusted) - 102.0 106.5 - 121.5 130.5 141.6 -
PE (x) - 42.5 40.7 - 35.6 33.2 30.6 -
EV to EBITDA (x) - 31.1 27.3 - 24.2 22.3 20.2 -
RoCE (%) - 24.0 32.2 - 37.3 34.7 32.8 -
RoE (%) - 18.7 25.1 - 29.3 27.0 25.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Strong quarter with better margins

  • P&G Health's Q3FY22 (July-June fiscal year) revenue increased 22% YoY to | 268 crore. EBITDA margins improved 1166 bps to 25.7% due to a decline in marketing expenditure. EBITDA grew 124% YoY at | 69 crore. Subsequently, net profit expanded 224% YoY to | 51 crore
  • P&G Health's revenues grew on the back of 48%, 20% and 13% YoY growth in respiratory, gastro-intestinal and derma therapies, respectively, while Top five brands (contributing ~ 57%) grew 14% YoY, according to MAT March 2022, IQVIA. On growth front, the company’s core therapy - VMS (65% of topline) has lagged with growth of 6% YoY on MAT March, 2022 levels compared to overall growth of 13% in 9MFY22. Despite high inflationary pressures on input cost, P&G Health in 9MFY22, is trending at 25.5% EBITDA margins mainly due to improved productivity and lower marketing spends
  • P&G Health possesses MNC pharma traits like strong brand stickiness, growth, earnings visibility, strong b/s, etc. The key differentiator for P&G Health is that its core category is VMS. Amid increasing demand for daily supplements, the company is focused on executing its strategy of offering superior brands, driving productivity, increasing reach and improving awareness
  • Board of directors of the company recommended an interim dividend of
    | 41 per equity share for FY22.

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