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Page Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 35,391.4 Chg : 33.80 (0.10%)
  • Target : 46,950.0 (12.68%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 May 2022

Stellar performance in tough scenario

About The Stock

Page Industries is the exclusive licensee of JOCKEY international brand and is the market leader in premium innerwear and leisurewear category. The brand is distributed in 2,895+ cities & towns and available in 105000+ MBO’s and 1000+ EBO’s. Sold ~ 148 million pieces in FY21.

  • Strong backward integration facilities having capacity of 250 million pieces
  • Robust business model generating 55%+ RoCE, delivering consistent EBITDA margins of 20%+ and having debt free b/s.
Q4FY22 results

Page Industries reported yet another stellar show with PAT coming in at an all-time high despite a challenging scenario.

  • On a high base, revenue for the quarter grew 26% YoY to ₹ 1111.1 crore (three-year CAGR: 22%). Volumes grew 8.7% YoY to 50.2 million
  • Despite RM inflationary pressure, the company has been able to maintain healthy EBITDA margins of 24.1% (up 476 bps YoY)
  • Tracking healthy operational performance, PAT grew 65% YoY to ₹ 190.6 crore. Liquidity positon remains robust with cash worth ₹ 283 crore
What should Investors do?

Page’s share price has grown by ~2.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 16350 in May 2017 to ~₹ 41600 levels in May 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD recommendation on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Page at ₹ 46950 i.e. 65x FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • New initiatives (focus on kids wear segment, new launches in athleisure/women wear and thrust on increasing penetration in rural areas) to propel sales and earnings growth
  • Significantly accelerated its distribution touchpoints (added 32548 outlets in FY22) to 110548+ MBO’s and 1131+ EBO stores
  • To further penetrate the untapped markets of tier III/IV cities, it has launched a bouquet of products catering to these markets
  • It expects to sustain healthy revenue trajectory. Page aims to reach sales of US$1 billion by FY26 (CAGR: ~18%)
  • We build revenue, earnings CAGR of 20%, 23%, respectively, in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Page, in our retail coverage we also like Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail (ABFRL)

  • ABFRL has charted out growth strategies to become a ~US$2.8 billion entity (₹ 21000 crore) by FY26E, translating to 15% CAGR in FY20-26E
    • BUY with target price of ₹ 340/share

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & conference call highlights

    • Page delivered yet another quarter of solid growth with topline growing 26% YoY to | 1111.1 crore. In Q4FY22. Volumes grew 8.7% YoY to 50 million pieces while average realisations improved 16% YoY to | 221/piece (price hike was ~8% which was taken in December 2021). The growth was broad based with healthy recovery witnessed across all segments (men’s, women athleisure and kids). The company continued to enhance its distribution touchpoints wherein it added 5500 (FY22: ~32500) taking the total count to 110548 touchpoints. FY22 was a landmark year for exclusive stores as it crossed 1000+ stores (added 193 stores in FY22). Revenue for FY22 grew 37% YoY to | 3886.5 crore (two-year CAGR: 15%) with volumes coming in at an all-time high of 192 million pieces (up 30% YoY). The management indicated that demand continues to be healthy across product categories and recently added distribution points have given strong feedback with ~80% repeat orders. We build in revenue CAGR of 20% in FY22-24E led by volume and realisation growth of 14% and 6%, respectively
    • Underlying gross margins (including sub-contracting charges) fell 180 bps YoY to 43.1%. The management highlighted that inflationary pressure was visible across items such as cotton, packaging and logistics. However, enhanced operating efficiencies and positive operating leverage resulted in EBITDA margins improving 476 bps YoY to 24.1%. For FY22, the company reported EBITDA margins of 20.2% despite, Q1FY22 being severely impacted (EBITDA margin: 6.8%). Page reported its highest ever PAT of | 536.5 crore with healthy PAT margins of 13.8%. The management continues to monitor the ongoing inflation concerns and expects to maintain EBITDA margin of ~21-22% on a sustainable basis. We expect earnings to grow at 23% CAGR in FY22-24E, with average EBITDA margins of ~21%
    •                                 On the balance sheet front, inventory increased 1.8x YoY to | 975 crore with net working capital cycle increasing from 61 to 73 days in FY22. The management indicated that the company has invested in raw material inventory given volatility in prices and also higher finished goods inventory on the back of strong anticipated Q1FY23 (Q1 is the strongest quarter for Page and the last two years have been disrupted due to Covid). The company accelerated capex spending (| 97 crore vs. | 20 crore in FY21) as it continues to enhance capacity. Page generated positive FCF worth | 230 crore, which was mainly utilised towards dividend payout (| 334 crore). The company continues to have healthy cash & investment worth | 283 crore (FY21: | 434 crore). Higher dividend payout and robust financial performance led the company to report RoCE of 66.1% (FY21: 52.4%)

Q4FY22 Earnings conference call highlights:

    • On the pricing front, the company has taken 8% price hike in December 2021 and has not taken any hike in Q4FY22. Page is not looking to hike prices immediately but if the input cost inflation continues it may hike prices to maintain its EBITDA margins in its targeted range of 20-22%
    • The company has built up inventory levels to counter the current inflationary trends in the raw material pricing and also to maintain continuity in operations, which has enabled it to outperform industry growth
    • Page has restructured its expenses by reduction of travel and other discretionary expenses. Currently, the company has a leaner expense structure than pre pandemic levels
    • On the performance of the 45000 new retail outlets over the last couple of years, the management highlighted that these new outlets were now contributing significantly to overall revenues and the second year productivity of these outlets was higher. The company currently has more than 1,10,000 retail touch points and believes it can take the number of outlets to around 150000 over next two years

     

    • All product categories registered a strong performance. The menswear portfolio also has shown good traction. The kids wear category performance has been in line with other categories performance. The kids wear category has been merged with the womenswear. Post that it has seen healthy growth
    • The company is currently operating at 80% utilisation level. Its expansion in Odisha is likely to start commercial production in Q4FY22. Page is planning to continue outsourcing also and expects 30% of the products to be outsourced while 70% will be manufactured in-house. For outsourcing, the management indicated that it would continue with the existing vendors rather than add many new vendors as it wants the existing vendors to grow with the company’s growth
    • The management indicated that it is investing in elastics manufacturing which is a critical aspect for their business. Also, the company is working on backward integration projects and further strengthening of technology platform. Page has hired professionals from the industry in leadership position of various verticals to achieve the desired growth ambition
    • The company is also gradually scaling up its international presence in the Gulf region and has increased its EBOs from four to eight over last year. The store expansion would be on franchise model. Though overall international business contributes only 1% of revenues, the management indicated that there is a huge growth potential. The management has hired a dedicated leadership team to pursue its growth ambition on expanding its international presence
    • Speedo brand virtually had negligible revenues during the pandemic as all swimming pools were closed over last two years. However, it has seen strong traction in the last three months and is currently trending at pre pandemic monthly average volumes. Speedo brand is available at 1340 retail outlets and 26 EBOs. The management believes the business has good long term potential as India is the fastest growing swimming market and the company would continue to invest in scaling up the brand
 

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