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Mindtree Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,429.4 Chg : 0.40 (0.01%)
  • Target : 4,090.0 (12.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 Apr 2022

Maintains guidance of 20% EBITDA margin…

About The Stock

Mindtree Ltd (Mindtree) is a mid-tier IT company with a presence in the US, Europe & RoW catering to BFSI, communication media & technology, retail & travel.

  • Expertise in infrastructure & application catering to Global 2000 clients
  • Dividend leading margins (>20%) compared to mid-tier IT companies
Q4FY22

Mindtree reported resilience on the margins front.

  • Fifth consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC QoQ growth
  • EBIT margins declined 30 bps to 18.9%
  • Order book healthy at US$1.6 billion (bn)
What should Investors do?

Mindtree’s share price has grown by ~9.0x over the past five years (from ~₹ 404 in April 2017 to ~₹ 3,638 levels in April 2022).

  • We maintain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value Mindtree at ₹ 4090 i.e. 32x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Key beneficiary of robust growth in cloud, data and experience
  • Traction in multi-year deals client mining, scaling up existing clients to US$50 million
  • Well poised for industry leading double digit revenue growth
  • Well poised to maintain 20%+ EBITDA margin
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides Mindtree, in our IT coverage we also like LTI.

  • Larsen & Toubro Infotech's (LTI) ability to deliver end-to-end solutions is expected to help in registering industry leading growth
  • BUY rating with a target price of ₹ 8,050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 7,021.5 7,764.3 7,967.8 10,525.3 15.0 12,925.4 15,007.0 19.4
EBITDA 1,064.5 1,062.3 1,656.7 2,195.6 25.5 2,585.1 3,001.4 16.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 15.2 13.7 20.8 20.9 - 20.0 20.0 -
Net Profit 754.1 630.9 1,110.5 1,652.9 31.6 1,812.0 2,110.6 13.0
EPS (|) 45.9 38.3 67.4 100.3 - 109.8 127.9 -
P/E 79.2 95.0 54.0 36.3 - 33.1 28.5 -
RoNW (%) 22.8 20.0 25.7 30.2 - 27.4 26.6 -
RoCE (%) 29.8 23.0 32.5 38.0 - 35.4 34.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported constant currency growth of 5.2% QoQ. It is the fifth consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC growth on a QoQ basis. Dollar revenue growth was 4.7% QoQ to US$384 million (mn). For FY22, rupee revenue grew 5.4% QoQ to | 2,897 crore. For FY22, rupee revenue grew 32.1% YoY to | 10,525 crore while dollar revenues grew 31.1% YoY to US$1.4 bn
  • In Q4, in terms of geographies, the growth in revenues was led by North America (74% of the mix) that grew 5.6% QoQ while continental Europe (9% of the mix) grew 5.8% QoQ. APAC and Middle East grew 9% QoQ. UK & Ireland reported decline of 6% QoQ
  • For Q4, vertical wise the growth was driven by technology, media & services (up 5.2% QoQ), BFSI (up 8.9% QoQ) and travel & hospitality (up 9.3% QoQ) while retail reported decline of 2.4% QoQ due to ramp down in retail client. Its new vertical healthcare (forms 1.5% of the mix) grew 18% QoQ on a low base
  • EBITDA grew 2.7% QoQ to | 608 crore while EBITDA margins dipped sequentially by 50 bps to 21.0%. EBIT margins dipped 30 bps QoQ to 18.9%
  • The company has been reporting a strong order book of US$300 mn+ for the last few quarters now. The order book for Q4 was at US$390 mn, which was up 9% QoQ and 4% YoY. The total order book for FY22 was at US$1.6 bn, which is up 17% YoY. The company added 33 new logos during the year and continues to focus on upscaling and cross selling
  • The management indicated that they maintain their 20%+ EBITDA margin guidance for FY23 despite certain near term challenges in terms of elevated employee expenses (which includes annual increment cycle in Q2). The company indicated that attrition is expected to remain at elevated level for the near term.
  • Mindtree indicated that subcontractor costs as percentage of sales has been coming down in the last few quarters. The company’s subcontractor costs as percentage of revenue is down from 11.2% of revenue in Q1FY22 to 9.5% in Q4FY22. Mindtree indicated that as travel is now open, it expects further moderation in subcontractor costs. The company also indicated that travel costs are expected to normalise in FY23 vs. lower in FY22 on account of travel restrictions
  • The company is looking to scale up the fresher hiring run rate. Mindtree has added 1500 freshers in the last two to three quarters and is looking to keep up this pace for the next few quarters to cater to the increasing demand
  • The company indicated it is getting a price hike, especially in the contracts of niche skills (e.g. AI/ML, cloud, etc). Mindtree indicated that as far as pricing is concerned, it also depends on the contact type i.e. whether it is revenue maximisation mandate contract or cost optimisation mandate contract. As per the management, it is looking at balancing approach on these mandates
  • The company indicated that it is looking to step up its investments in meta-verse offering. Mindtree is also looking to strengthen its capabilities into AI/ML, blockchain, which forms building blocks of Meta-verse since clients are now looking to spend in this new area
  • As per management, in CMT vertical, clients are spending in the area of digital marketing, enterprise IT, cyber security, product innovation. In BFSI vertical, tech spend is being focused on modernising the core banking solutions, domain specific offerings, future payment technologies, etc. in travel vertical, the company is looking to expand beyond traditional clients such as airlines/hotels into food & beverages, surface transportation, etc
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY22   Q4FY22E   Q4FY21   YoY (%)   Q3FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 2,897.4 2,888.7 2,109.3 37.4 2,750.0 5.4 Fifth consecutive quarter of 5%+ CC revenue growth 
Employee expenses 1,750.3 1,740.2 1,312.3 33.4 1,645.8 6.3  
               
Gross Margin 1,147.1 1,148.5 797.0 43.9 1,104.2 3.9  
Gross margin (%) 39.6 39.8 37.8 181 bps 40.2 -56 bps  
SG&A expenses 538.8 547.5 334.4 61.1 512.1 5.2  
               
EBITDA 608.3 601.0 462.6 31.5 592.1 2.7  
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.0 20.8 21.9 -94 bps 21.5 -54 bps Margins were better than expectations due to lower-than-expected SG&A expenses
Depreciation 59.6 68.1 71.3 -16.4 63.2 -5.7  
EBIT 548.7 532.9 391.3 40.2 528.9 3.7  
EBIT Margin (%) 18.9 18.4 18.6 39 bps 19.2 -30 bps  
Other income 89.9 70.8 38.9 131.1 70.8 27.0  
PBT 638.6 603.7 430.2 48.4 599.7 6.5  
Tax paid 129.8 149.2 113.9 14.0 161.2 -19.5  
PAT 473.1 440.5 317.3 49.1 437.5 8.1  

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

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Road No 7, MIDC,

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research@icicidirect.com

 

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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