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Maruti Suzuki India Ltd>
  • CMP : 12,950.0 Chg : 5.95 (0.05%)
  • Target : 9,630.0 (15.12%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

27 Jun 2022

Top bets in Auto OEM Coverage Universe

About The Stock

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) is the market leader in the domestic passenger vehicle (PV) space with market share pegged at ~43% as of FY22 and popular models being Alto, WagonR, Swift, Brezza, Baleno, Ertiga, etc. among others. Also, the company’s market share passenger car sub-segment is pegged at ~64%, SUV’s is pegged at ~20% and vans is ~96%.

What should Investors do?
  • MSIL’s approach towards green mobility is through the CNG route wherein its penetration now at ~15% of its overall portfolio with highest ever sales at >2.3 lakh units as of FY22

We turn positive on MSIL amid robust order-book, underpenetrated PV category domestically, new launched & refreshes in the UV space with penchant to recapture the lost market share and greenfield expansion on the anvil. The company is also likely to benefit from recent appreciation of the rupee vs. JPY as well as correction in metal prices. Revising our estimates, we upgrade MSIL to BUY valuing it at ₹ 9,630 i.e. 30x PE on FY24E EPS.

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New launches, robust orderbook to support growth in PV space

The passenger vehicle segment is witnessing strong demand prospects with record waiting period across top selling models in the UV space. A vindication of the current trend is robust order-book at key OEMs. Maruti Suzuki’s order-book is at ~3.2 lakh units as of April 2022, equivalent to two months of sales volume while the same for M&M is at >1.7 lakh units, equivalent to six months of sales volume. Consumer excitement is also upbeat with a series of exciting launches in the recent past and slew of impending launches namely Scorpio-N from M&M, New Brezza from Maruti Suzuki, new SUV from Toyota- Suzuki partnership among others.

Correction in metal prices, gross margin expansion in the offing

Metals are key raw material for the automobile space with steel & aluminium together constituting nearly ~50-65% of RM costs. In the recent past, domestic steel prices are down nearly 20% post restrictions placed on their exports while global aluminium prices are down nearly 25%+ amid muted demand from key markets like China. This softness of metal prices is a sign of relief and is likely to support profitability of the auto space in the near term. Over and above this, market leader in 2-W space i.e. Hero MotoCorp has announced a price hike up to ₹ 3,000 sensing healthy demand prospects with opportunity to realise better pricing and consequent operating margins.

Outperformance to continue, remain positive on PV & CV space

The Nifty Auto index has outperformed broader markets and is up ~4% YTD in CY22 vs. ~11% decline in Nifty. Other supportive factors for such outperformance include (i) pick up in pace of monsoons with cumulative as on date rainfall pegged at -7% of LPA, (ii) cut in excise duty on fuels (₹ 8/litre on petrol, ₹ 6/litre on diesel) in May 2022 thereby lowering running costs of vehicles and an impetus for new vehicle sales and (iii) decline in global crude prices (down ~10%+ from recent highs), a positive in terms of RM costs (crude derivatives- plastics) and expectations of further softness in fuel prices (petrol, diesel). In the present uncertain global demand environment our top bets are largely domestic oriented business models which are capital efficient, have lean b/s, beneficiaries of strong underlying demand in passenger vehicle segment as well as cyclical recovery under way in CV space and are progressively transforming themselves amid changing technology landscape (i.e. electrification).

Wheels turn - albeit quickly, supportive macros indicate gains for domestic automobile space…

In our last update released in March 2022 (link), we had opined about resurfacing issues for the automobile sector largely on account of disruptions in the supply chain (chip availability) and increase in key commodity prices namely crude and metals amid ongoing geo-political crises. However, as we stand today, things have changed for the better. In the true sense wheels have turned benefitting the domestic automobile space. To start with, supply chain issues, remain largely resolved with management commentary suggesting improving chip availability and commodity prices mainly metals have corrected substantially amid resurfacing global growth concerns, Covid led clampdown in China, high inflation and consequent global centrals bank efforts to tame the same via interest rate hikes. Thus, with supporting macros at bay we change our sectoral view to positive from neutral earlier with our top bets in the auto OEM space being M&M (BUY rating; revised target price: ₹ 1,315) and Maruti Suzuki (changing rating from HOLD to BUY; revised target price: ₹ 9,630) while our top bets in ancillary space would be Automotive Axles (BUY rating; TP: ₹ 2,140) and Minda Corporation (BUY rating; revised TP: ₹ 260).

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 86,020.3 75,610.6 70,332.5 88,295.6 5.4 107,207.6 122,360.4 17.7
EBITDA 10,999.3 7,302.6 5,345.3 5,661.8 -11.4 9,634.5 12,804.6 50.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 12.8 9.7 7.6 6.4 - 9.0 10.5 -
Net Profit 7,500.6 5,650.6 4,229.7 3,766.3 -12.5 7,030.9 9,695.8 60.4
EPS (₹) 248.3 187.1 140.0 124.7 - 232.7 321.0 -
P/E 33.7 44.7 59.7 67.1 - 35.9 26.1 -
RoNW (%) 16.3 11.7 8.2 7.0 - 11.9 14.7 -
RoIC (%) 68.6 26.8 24.2 24.2 - 48.7 65.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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