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eClerx Services Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,408.2 Chg : -41.70 (-1.70%)
  • Target : 1,800.0 (11.46%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2023

Sequential revenue dip in Q1; double digit growth in FY24 looks challenging…

About The Stock

eClerx Services (eClerx) provides business process management, automation and analytics services.

  • It caters to financial services, communications, retail, media, manufacturing, travel and technology companies
  • OCF to EBITDA of >80%, debt free and RoCE of >20%
Q4FY23 Results:

eClerx reported flat revenue growth in Q4FY23.

  • Revenue was flat in CC terms in Q4 while in dollar terms it grew 0.6% QoQ
  • EBITDA margins increased by ~80 bps QoQ to 30.4%
  • Completed buyback of 17.14 lakh shares at buyback amount of ₹ 1,750 per share for total amount of ₹ 300 crore
What should Investors do?

eClerx’ share price has grown by ~1.8x (adjusted bonus) over the past five years (from ~₹ 885 in May 2018 to ~₹ 1615 in May 2023).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value eClerx at ₹ 1,800 i.e. 14x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Traction in customer care, RPA, analytics & content development, cross sell and up sell to Personiv clients to drive growth
  • Lower roll-offs, improving deal wins and revival in growth are expected to drive revenues
  • Expect dollar revenues to grow at 12.2% CAGR in FY23-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from eClerx, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Key beneficiary of growth in digital technologies and exposure to growth segments like healthcare & BFSI
  •  BUY with a target price of ₹ 5,170

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net sales 1,437.5 1,564.5 2,160.3 2,713.7 14.7 2,933.4 3,462.7 13.0
EBITDA 323.5 464.5 696.8 809.8 17.2 858.9 1,028.0 12.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.5 29.7 32.3 29.8 - 29.3 29.7 -
Net Profit 209.0 282.8 417.4 488.9 11.0 529.2 638.2 14.3
EPS (|) 57.3 81.3 81.1 97.2 - 106.4 128.4 -
P/E 28.2 19.9 19.9 16.6 - 15.2 12.6 -
RoNW (%) 16.0 18.8 26.6 28.5 - 23.6 22.2 -
RoCE (%) 19.9 23.3 34.9 39.3 - 30.6 29.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company in CC terms reported flat revenue growth sequentially while in YoY terms it grew 12.1%. In dollar terms, the company reported revenue of US$85.6, up 0.6% QoQ & 10.9% YoY while in rupee terms revenue came at | 693.1 crore, up 0.9% QoQ & 17.1% YoY
  • Geography wise US (71% of mix) reported muted growth of 0.2% QoQ while Europe region (20% of mix) declined 3.1% QoQ. RoW region grew 12.9% during the quarter
  • The company reported that its offshore revenue (81.9% of mix) grew 1.4% QoQ while onshore revenue (18.1% of mix) declined 3.1% QoQ. The company indicated that it expects the onshore revenue to remain at similar level of ~18% for couple quarters. Bpaas revenue (29% of mix) grew 12.2% QoQ & 14.8% YoY due to surge in volumes generally expected in Q4
  • EBITDA margins (including other income) during the quarter improved ~80 bps QoQ to 30.4% due to decline in delivery cost & lower sub-contractor cost. Cost of delivery declined 390 bps QoQ
  • The company, during the quarter, reported lower other income due to a decline in revaluation reserve due to appreciation of rupee against dollar during the quarter. The company reported other income of | 5.3 crore in Q4 while PAT came in at | 132 crore with a corresponding PAT margin of 19.1%
  • The company for FY23 reported revenue of US$332.7 mn, up 16.9% while in CC terms it grew 19%. The company for FY23 reported an EBITDA margin of 29.8%, down 210 bps against guidance of 28-32% of EBITDA margin for FY23. PAT margin for the year came in at 18.5%, down 80 bps
  • Revenue from top five clients (39.9% of mix) grew 0.4% QoQ after declining in Q3 while revenue from top 10 clients (58.9% of mix) grew 0.9% QoQ. The company mentioned that its revenue from emerging clients was flattish on a sequential basis
  • The company had earlier indicated that it expects softness in demand due to changes in the macro environment. The company mentioned that the revenue performance during the quarter was impacted by a slowdown in discretionary spending (it forms ~30% of the revenue mix as per company), which impacted the onshore & digital revenue contribution of the company. The company further added that decline was broad based across geographies & clients. The company mentioned that it is expecting revenue dip in Q1 while it is likely to pick up from Q2FY24 onwards. It indicated that it aspires for double digit revenue growth in FY24 but that number looks challenging in the backdrop of possible QoQ revenue decline in Q1. The company mentioned that demand pipeline is strong but deal conversions are taking time
  • The company mentioned that it has appointed Kapil Jain as its Group CEO & MD to accelerate the growth of the company. Mr Jain has over two decades of experience in the industry with Infosys and in his last role he served as its Executive Vice President- Global Head of Sales & Enterprise Capability for the BPM business. The company mentioned that till the new strategy is formulated the existing strategy to focus on growing BpaaS, analytics & automation and productised services will continue. The company indicated that PD Mundhra and Anjan Malik will move to more strategic roles now while day to day operations will be handled by Mr Jain
  • The company mentioned that it has set up a centre of excellence as part of its tech team, which is figuring out a relevant AI model, which can be incorporated as part of its services. eClerx indicated that in stage 1 the company makes itself familiar with the tech, in stage 2 it finds out how the tech can be implemented as part of its service offerings and in stage 3 it takes the bundled offerings to its clients. The company indicated that in generative AI space it is in between stage 1 and stage 2 and will likely move to stage 3 in the near term

 

 

 

  • On the margin front for FY24 the company indicated that the EBITDA margins will likely to remain around 30% for FY24. The company mentioned that margin would be lower in Q1FY24 due to roll out of annual wage hikes and will increase subsequently
  • The company’s net employees during the quarter declined by 685 to 16,012. The company indicated that the reduction was due to anticipated slowdown in demand & its effort of rationalising the excess bench strength as the supply side challenges is easing out. The company’s utilisation during the quarter increased marginally by 20 bps QoQ to 74.9%
  • The company mentioned that it continues to gain wallet share among its clients. The company indicated that during the quarter it added one client to US$3-5 mn revenue bucket list taking the total clients to four
  • The company added that despite the slowdown there are enough opportunities in the market for the services it is offering. eClerx indicated that it will continue to grow its business in the segments of BpaaS, analytics & automation and productised services unless it goes for inorganic opportunity outside these segments
  • The company mentioned that it enjoys significant cost arbitrage compared to the same work done in the US (one-fourth the cost). Also, compared to India the cost of BPO work done in Philippines is at ~1.5x/2.5x of the cost. The company also mentioned that Philippines region offer strong voice-based work and also finance & accounting related services since they are more familiar with US GAAP accounting due to which it enjoys better pricing compared to Indian BPO employees
  • The company mentioned that capex in FY24 will higher as the two new floors in Airoli building will be operational by the end of Q1FY24. The company further mentioned that it has a presence across different cities like Mumbai, Pune, NCR, Coimbatore, etc
  • The company mentioned that it completed buyback of 17,14,285 equity shares at a buyback amount of | 1,750 per share for total buyback amount of | 300 crore in February. eClerx also declared a final dividend of | 1 per share for FY23. The company indicated that as per its payout policy it is planning to return excess cash to shareholders ( if they did not find a suitable asset for acquisition)

Disclaimer

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

Third Floor, Brillanto House,

Road No 13, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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