loader2
Partner With Us NRI
Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries Ltd>
  • CMP : 363.2 Chg : 0.65 (0.18%)
  • Target : 490.0 (43.70%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2022

Ethanol sales, sugar export to minimise inventories

About The Stock

Dalmia Bharat sugar (DBS) is only sugar company present in UP as well as in Maharashtra. The company has sugar crushing capacity of 38250 TCD (6 lakh tonnes pa), distillery capacity of 600 KLD (18 crore litters pa) & co-generation capacity of 102 MW & Wind power of 16.5 MW (Total 30 crore units’ saleable power)

  • The company has expanded its distillery capacity from 8.5 crore litres to 18 crore litres. It would further increase its distillery capacity to 24 crore litres in next one year through one grain based & one molasses based distillery
Q4-FY22 Results

DBS posted revenue growth of 75% led by aggressive exports

  • Sales was flat YoY, with lower sugar volumes offset by high sugar prices & higher domestic sale quota
  • EBITDA was at Rs 130.8 crore, up 2.8% YoY, with margins at 15.3%
  • PAT was at Rs 56.7 crore (up 9.2% YoY) backed by reduced interest expense
What should Investors do?

DBS’s share price has gone up 129% in last five years (from Rs 144 in May 2017 to 330 in May 2022)

  • We expect distillery volumes to grow from 12 crore litres in FY22 to 22 crore litres in FY24. This would boost earning at 17.1% CAGR during FY22-24E
  • We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value the stock at Rs 490, ascribing a multiple of 10x FY24 earnings

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • DBS is fastest in utilising B-heavy, Sugarcane juice & grain route to produce ethanol. Distillery capacity to grow 2x to 24 crore litres by FY24
  • The company export high quality refined sugar & utilise higher global white sugar prices. This improves its overall sugar realisation
  • The company has diverted 25% of its sugarcane towards ethanol & also aggressively exported high quality sugar. We believe company’s dependency on domestic sugar sales has come down significantly
New Stock Ideas

We also like Balrampur Chini in our Sugar coverage universe

  • The company is second largest & one of the most efficient sugar companies in India. Along with sugarcane juice, B-heavy, the company is also utilising grain based ethanol to leverage the ethanol opportunity in India
  • We value the stock at Rs 515 / share with Buy recommendation

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR % (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E (Blank) CAGR % (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 2,110.8 2,685.8 3,018.3 12.4 3,131.0 3,386.4 - 5.9
EBITDA 336.6 471.4 447.7 3.4 577.2 651.9 - 20.7
EBITDA Margin % 15.9 17.6 14.8 - 18.4 19.3 - -
Net Profit 193.2 270.3 297.3 9.8 347.9 407.8 - 17.1
EPS (Rs) 23.9 33.4 36.7 9.8 43.0 50.4 - 17.1
P/E 14.3 10.2 9.3 - 7.9 6.8 - -
RoNW % 9.0 12.6 12.6 - 15.0 15.4 - -
RoCE (%) 11.8 13.3 12.3 - 15.1 16.8 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Distillery revenue to contribute 40% to sales by 2024

  • Consolidate revenue witnessed a growth of 75.1% to Rs 856 crore on account of 111.2% growth in sugar sales, 125% jump in distillery sales & 28.9% growth in power revenues.
  • The company witnessed 56% growth in sugar volumes to 1.5 lakh tonnes. It domestic sugar sales quota was 31.3% to 1.09 lakh tonnes. It has exported 0.41 lakh tonnes during the quarter (our estimate). Moreover, prevailing domestic sugar prices are higher by 5-8% in last one year.
  • Distillery volumes more than doubled to 4.1 crore liters after company expanded its capacity to 600 KLPD. Power volumes were higher by 3% to 11.8 crore units
  • Operating profit grew by 2.8% to Rs 130.8 crore in Q4FY22. We believe the slower growth in operating profit is mainly due to increase in sugarcane prices in current season in UP, lower recovery rate & reduction in power tariffs in Maharashtra.
  • We also believe the company is holding high inventory of B-heavy molasses given very aggressive sugarcane diversion towards ethanol in current season. Considering, distillery margins are much higher than sugar, high inventory of B-heavy molasses would result in higher ethanol volumes & profitability in next two quarters
  • The company has been able to reduce its debt by Rs 140 crore despite completion of aggressive capex in FY22. The total debt for the company stands at Rs 620 crore. Total Debt to equity stands at 0.26x. It has generated operating cash flow of Rs 567 crore in FY22.
  • We believe the company is holding 2.8-2.9 lakh tonnes of sugar as on March 2022 valued at ~Rs 32 / kg. DBS has diverted 25% of its sugarcane towards ethanol through B-heavy & sugarcane Juice in 2021-22 season
  • The company has exported 1.25 lakh tonnes of sugar in 2021-22 sugar season, which is close to 20% of its total sugar sales
  • In FY22, distillery volumes have increased by 41% to 12.05 crore litres. During the year, the company has expanded its crushing capacity by 3250 TCD to 38250 by undertaking expansion in its Jawaharpur & Nigohi Units. It has also expanded its distillery capacity from 300 KLD to 600 KLD by undertaking capex in Jawaharpur, Kolhapur Units & setting up 140 KLD new distillery in Ramgarh
  • DBS would be able to commission 100 KLD grain based plant by November 2022 at its Jawaharpur Plant. It is also setting up 50 KLD distillery at Sagli Unit. After this capex, its total distillery capacity would reach 750 KLD (24-25 crore litres)
  • In its Consumer business, it has launched rice bran oil under brand name Dalmia Utsav. The company has presence in refined sugar, honey, mustard & rice bran oil in its FMCG business. The company intend to further expand its consumer business going forward
  • The company is expanding its consumer business rapidly by venturing into Edible oil, branded sugar & Honey category. We believe it would have incurred loss of Rs 10-15 crore in consumer business given initial stage of the business. The company is looking to expand consumer business by extending Utsav brand in other agri / food categories.
  • It has announced a final dividend of Rs 1/share. Along with interim dividend of Rs 3/share, total dividend stands at Rs 4/share

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

 

Read More