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Castrol India Ltd>
  • CMP : 207.6 Chg : -0.85 (-0.41%)
  • Target : 125.0 (8.70%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

03 Aug 2022

Base oil costs trend key monitorable…

About The Stock

Castrol India, a subsidiary of BP, operates in the lubricants business and caters to automotive and industrial segments.

  • Automotive segment volumes contribute 80-85% of total sales volume
  • Castrol has high pricing power and commands premium for its products
Q2CY22 Results

Q2CY22 earnings were driven by higher volume as well as realisation YoY.

  • Revenue was up 39.6% YoY to ₹ 1241.7 crore, driven by higher volume (on a lower base) as well as realisation
  • Gross margins were up ~11% YoY to ₹ 109.5/litre, on account of higher realisation. EBITDA/litre was at ₹ 51.1/litre, up ~16% YoY leading to EBITDA of ₹ 2861.1 crore, up 44.9% YoY 
  • Subsequently, PAT increased 47.3% YoY to ₹ 206.3 crore
What should Investors do?

Higher base oil prices remain a concern in the near term. Potential disruptions like higher drain interval and EVs will be key monitorables for long-term volume growth.

  • We retain HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Castrol India at ₹ 125 i.e.~15x CY23E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance

Although Castrol is likely to report volume growth YoY in CY22E, lack of sustainable volume growth in future will limit overall growth 

  • While the company hiked prices in CY22, high base oil prices will affect margins. Hence, we see limited headroom for gross margin growth in near term
  • Castrol’s 2-W volume (25% of volume mix) is likely to be impacted by introduction of 2-W EVs
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides Castrol, in our oil & gas coverage we also like Gail. 

  • Gail is a beneficiary of increasing gas consumption. Stable volume growth along with higher profitability from gas trading, petchem and LPG segment due to higher oil prices will add value
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 180

Key Financial Summary

Particulars CY18 CY19 CY20 5 year CAGR (CY15-20) CY21E CY22E CY22E1 3 year CAGR (CY20-23E)
Revenues (| crore) 3,904.6 3,876.8 2,996.9 4,192.1 4.5 4,893.5 5,005.5 18.6
EBITDA (| crore) 1,070.8 1,153.0 814.1 1,066.0 1.2 1,091.5 1,143.8 12.0
Net Profit (| crore) 708.3 827.4 582.9 758.1 2.4 785.7 818.9 12.0
EPS (|) 7.2 8.4 5.9 7.7 - 7.9 8.3 -
P/E (x) 16.1 13.7 19.5 15.0 - 14.5 13.9 -
Price / Book (x) 9.8 8.3 8.0 6.9 - 6.5 6.1 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 9.0 12.4 9.5 - 9.2 8.6 -
RoCE (%) 87.1 79.2 50.9 59.6 - 57.4 55.5 -
RoE (%) 60.8 60.5 41.2 46.1 - 44.8 43.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q2CY22 Results: Volume de-grew ~5% QoQ

  • Revenue was flattish QoQ as sales volume declined ~5% QoQ. Going ahead, we expect Castrol’s volume at 219 million litre in CY22E and 221.2 million litre in CY23E 
  • Realisation was up ~6% QoQ while gross margin was up ~4% QoQ. EBITDA/litre de-grew 5%% QoQ
  • We expect gross margins at | 106.7/litre in CY22E and | 108.6/litre in CY23E. EBITDA is expected at | 49.8/litre and | 51.7/litre in CY22E and CY23E, respectively 
  • Castrol’s raw materials cost (base oil) is dependent on movement of crude oil prices and rupee against the US dollar. As crude oil prices are trading near US$100/bbl currently, we expect base oil prices to stay elevated in the near term

Q2CY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Total volumes for Q2CY22 were 56 million litre. Volume mix for the quarter is as follows: personal mobility: 50%, commercial vehicle: 35-40% while the rest belongs to the industrial segment
  • The management said the company has a market share of 21-22% in the retail automotive segment
  • The management said that the company will focus on service & maintenance and EV fluid development 
  • The management said that prices are likely to stay at higher levels in Q3CY22. However, prices are likely to come down in the latter part of Q4CY22
  • Focus will be on both volume growth as well as realisation growth 
  • Other expenses increased QoQ as amid rise in variable costs, freight rate & insurance costs
 
  Q2CY22 Q2CY22E Q2CY21 YoY (%) Q1CY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 1,241.7 1,261.1 889.6 39.6 1,235.7 0.5   Lower-than-expected realisations as well as volumes impacted revenues 
Raw materials costs 628.8 707.7 444.9 41.3 615.7 2.1    
Employees Cost 66.2 62.3 59.3 11.7 70.2 -5.7    
Other Expenses 260.6 244.7 187.9 38.7 232.6 12.0   Other expenses above estimates 
Total Expenditure 955.6 1,014.7 692.1 38.1 918.5 4.0    
EBITDA 286.1 246.5 197.5 44.9 317.2 -9.8   EBITDA came in below our estimate on account of higher other expenses and lower volumes
EBITDA margins (%) 23.0 19.5 22.2 84 bps 25.7 -263 bps    
Depreciation 19.6 20.4 19.9 -1.7 20.2 -3.1    
EBIT 266.6 226.1 177.6 50.1 297.0 -10.3    
Interest 0.5 0.9 0.7 -30.0 0.7 -30.0    
Other Income 13.7 15.0 13.3 2.8 15.0 -8.9    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 279.7 240.2 190.2 47.1 311.3 -10.1    
Total Tax 73.5 62.9 50.2 46.4 82.9 -11.4    
PAT 206.3 177.3 140.0 47.3 228.4 -9.7    
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 77.3 76.0 73.9 4.6 75.2 2.7    
Volumes (mn litre)  56.0 55.5 45.0 24.4 59.0 -5.1   Volumes lower than estimates mainly on account of lower CV and industrial volumes
Net Realisation (|/litre) 221.7 227.2 197.7 12.2 209.4 5.9    
Gross Margins (|/litre) 109.5 99.7 98.8 10.8 105.1 4.2   Gross margins per unit increased YoY due to higher sales price and better product mix
EBITDA (|/litre) 51.1 44.4 43.9 16.4 53.8 -5.0   Higher other expenses led to lower EBITDA per unit than estimates

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Harshal Mehta, MTech (Biotech), Amogh Deshpande, PGDM, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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