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Aster DM Healthcare Ltd>
  • CMP : 520.6 Chg : -1.20 (-0.23%)
  • Target : 270.0 (51.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jun 2022

Top pick in Hospital Coverage Universe

About The Stock

Aster operates in segments like hospitals, clinics, retail pharmacies and provides healthcare services to patients across economic segments in several GCC states through various brands such as Aster, Medcare and Access.

  • Its network consists of 13 hospitals, 109 clinics and 240 retail pharmacies in the GCC states;14 hospitals, 11 clinics, 131 pharmacies and 114 labs in India; total bed capacity: GCC: 1160, India: 3905
  • Revenue break-up FY22: hospitals: 56%, pharmacies: 21%, clinics: 23% with GCC & India contributing 77% & 23% of revenues, respectively
Fundamental Strength

Aster DM Healthcare is one of the largest integrated healthcare service providers in the Middle East and an emerging player in India. It has operations in seven countries including GCC and India. Aster DM’s integrated model covers the entire life cycle of healthcare, starting from primary to quaternary care through its state-of-the-art hospitals, clinics and pharmacies. The company is focused on expansion via asset light model (~1000 beds through O&M) in India. The management is targeting India expansion with low capex investment but high potential opportunity. We expect gradual margins and RoCE improvement on the back of higher occupancy and capacity optimisation in newer assets.

What should Investors do?

We retain BUY rating and value Aster DM at ₹ 270 based on SOTP valuation.

Hospitals best placed in overall healthcare theme…

After a muted FY21 due to Covid-led lockdowns, the hospital industry (I-direct coverage universe) has bounced back with 32% revenue growth in FY22 to ₹ 30,713 crore while EBITDA margins also improved by 404 bps to 15.2%. This turnaround in fortunes was mainly due to 1) higher in-patient volume post-Covid, 2) surge in occupancy due to pent-up demand and 3) mix of high end elective surgeries driving ARPOB levels for hospital chains.

Covid-19 handling experience has changed the way hospitals function with a more nimble-footed approach e.g. converting doctors from fixed pay to variable-pay regime, separate zoning for patients, higher emphasis on tele-medicine, digital app based drives for treating patients at remote locations and incremental home care treatments. This has culminated into resilient performances by almost all players in FY22, thus seamlessly reconnecting to the pre-pandemic story of improving profitability and return ratios.

Structurally, hospitals are well placed amid growing demand due to both awareness and affordability, expected revival in medical tourism as well as brownfield and greenfield expansion by hospitals to tap into newer markets. Hospitals are increasingly looking to grow into adjacent businesses like pharmacy, diagnostics and clinics to capture the whole value chain of patient life-cycle management.

We estimate I-direct hospital coverage universe revenues will grow at CAGR of 12% over FY22-24E to ₹ 38,196 crore. EBITDA margins are projected to expand by 194 bps to 17.2% in FY24.

 

We have earmarked top picks – Apollo Hospitals (BUY rating; target price: 4,500), and Aster DM (BUY rating; target price: 270).

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 7,962.7 8,717.1 8,608.4 10,253.3 11.6 10,838.9 12,040.6 8.4
EBITDA 862.8 1,265.6 1,062.8 1,483.3 34.9 1,822.8 2,087.9 18.6
EBITDA margins (%) 10.8 14.5 12.3 14.5 - 16.8 17.3 -
Net Profit 333.1 284.9 147.7 526.0 38.9 718.5 919.2 32.2
EPS (|) 6.7 5.7 3.0 10.5 - 14.4 18.4 -
PE (x) 26.7 31.2 60.1 16.9 - 12.4 9.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 13.1 11.3 12.6 9.0 - 6.9 5.5 -
RoCE (%) 8.3 7.2 5.4 9.0 - 11.4 12.9 -
ROE 10.4 8.7 4.4 13.3 - 15.4 16.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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